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When the National Disability Insurance Scheme was originally set up, it was projected to support around 400,000 Australians at its peak. As of 2025, support is being offered to almost double that number.
Two weeks ago, the Federal Government moved to rein that in with changes that will see 160,000 participants exit the scheme over the next four years.
NSW can’t step back as NDIS changes leaves gaps
In NSW alone, almost a quarter of a million people are accessing the NDIS. However, the Premier has ruled out providing equivalent care in the state system due to the current strain on the health and education sectors.
But reform only works when it is sequenced properly – people should not be exited from the system until clear, accessible alternatives are in place. Without action, people exiting the NDIS in NSW will not be transitioning into a functioning system; they will be falling into a gap.
Reform without support will land on the shoulders of social services
The roll-out of Thriving Kids has already exposed the risks. Our members have told us that children have exited the scheme before supports are available, leaving families without services or a pathway forward. Even the national Thriving Kids Advisory Group’s final report noted that the connection should be smooth so ‘… children and families can move between the two systems as needed.’
NCOSS member organisations and their counterparts across the sector will be the ones people turn to when their NDIS support is reduced or removed. Demand will increase rapidly and with greater complexity. Without additional funding, services will be stretched well beyond capacity. The consequences are far-reaching, including longer wait times, reduced services, poorer overall wellbeing and people cycling through crisis services rather than receiving the early, consistent support they need. This will undermine the Federal Government’s broader reform agenda and risk putting even more pressure on State-funded acute services.
There is still time to get this right
Before eligibility is tightened, governments must ensure that foundational supports are funded and operational, with clear and ethical transition guidelines, adequate safety nets and alternative supports in place. That is what People With Disability Australia (PWDA) has called for, noting that without a clear, funded alternative ‘the cost will shift back onto people with disability, their families and other systems like aged care and hospitals that cannot absorb it.’ This pressure will be felt unevenly across our community – hardest of all by those with the least.
We have a critical role in ensuring people are not left without support as the reforms take effect, but the NSW Government will have to step into the breach. It must commit to funding the community sector to meet demand while putting in place the right supports so that no one is left without a clear path forward.